Skip to content
Confidirect

Jesse O'Brien.

The practitioner behind Confidirect. Forecasting, analytics engineering and advisory for organisations that want an experienced outside perspective on a data problem, without the hiring round.

Background

Five years where the forecast had to be right.

I spent five years inside a large government organisation in New Zealand, building the forecasting and reporting infrastructure that a large operational function relied on. That meant demand, capacity and FTE models covering more than three thousand people, automated forecasting pipelines that replaced manual processes, and more than fifty dashboards shipped into production and relied on week to week.

Outside that, independent projects apply the same discipline to forecasting, optimisation and causal inference on different problems. In each case I am the accountable owner: the person who makes the call and builds the thing that proves it.

Confidirect is that experience made available on contract, so the person who reviews your model is the one who ships the pipeline.

Three notes from the government work

How I work

Four things you can hold me to.

  1. I say what the data supports

    Even when it is not the easiest thing to hear. A forecast that tells leadership what they hoped for is worth less than one they can plan against.

  2. Assumptions are written down

    Every model and plan ships with its assumptions and its interval, so it can be challenged, revisited and handed over.

  3. The person who scopes it builds it

    Confidirect is a single practitioner by design. There is no hand-off to a delivery team, and no re-explaining the problem halfway through.

  4. Remote is the default

    Based in New Zealand, working with clients across APAC and worldwide. Time zone differences are not an obstacle for an experienced remote professional.

Working stack

Python · R · SQL · dbt · Snowflake · Databricks · Power BI · Salesforce · Power Automate · Microsoft Graph · GitHub Actions

Next step

If the problem is real, the first call is free.

Describe it in a few lines. I reply personally, and if I am not the right person for it I will say so and point you somewhere better.